# EXP-3D-READOUT-REFERENCE-REANALYSIS-V1

`CARRIER_REFERENCE_STATUS=NO_CARRIER_ABOVE_GEOMETRY_FREE_REFERENCE`。

这是对 V2-V4 已封存 DEV 预测的事后二次分析：不训练、不加载模型、不改变任何冻结状态。参考常数只由 TRAIN primary-query GT 拟合：REF_TRAIN_ABSREL_OPTIMAL=2.3736 m（AbsRel 最优常数），REF_TRAIN_MEDIAN=4.1992 m。差值为正表示 carrier 更好（AbsRel 更低 / delta1 更高）；CI 为 10000 次 scene-paired bootstrap。

Amendment 1（见 AMENDMENTS.md，在任何指标计算之前作出）：预测中位数不为正的视角（全部射线落在 bounds 之外、渲染全零的 NO_HIT 视角）在 MEDIAN_SCALED 下保持不缩放；受影响视角数=216。排除全 NO_HIT 场景 ['ai_009_001'] 的次要敏感性分析：`CARRIER_REFERENCE_STATUS=NO_CARRIER_ABOVE_GEOMETRY_FREE_REFERENCE`，ABOVE 计数={'RAW:depth_absrel': 0, 'RAW:depth_delta1': 0, 'OPACITY_NORMALIZED:depth_absrel': 0, 'OPACITY_NORMALIZED:depth_delta1': 0, 'MEDIAN_SCALED:depth_absrel': 0, 'MEDIAN_SCALED:depth_delta1': 0}。

## RAW · depth_absrel

| carrier | mean | vs primary reference | label | vs anchor |
|---|---:|---:|---|---|
| V2_C0 | 0.6495 | -0.1425 [-0.2465, -0.0432] | BELOW | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V2_C1 | 0.6300 | -0.1231 [-0.2180, -0.0384] | BELOW | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V2_C2 | 0.6302 | -0.1232 [-0.2180, -0.0389] | BELOW | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V3_C0 | 0.6301 | -0.1231 [-0.2180, -0.0385] | BELOW | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V3_C1 | 0.6200 | -0.1131 [-0.2149, -0.0194] | BELOW | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V3_C2 | 0.6348 | -0.1278 [-0.2306, -0.0264] | BELOW | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V4_C0 | 0.6174 | -0.1104 [-0.2144, -0.0150] | BELOW | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V4_C1 | 0.6102 | -0.1032 [-0.2118, -0.0029] | BELOW | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V4_C2 | 0.6184 | -0.1114 [-0.2189, -0.0096] | BELOW | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |

## RAW · depth_delta1

| carrier | mean | vs primary reference | label | vs anchor |
|---|---:|---:|---|---|
| V2_C0 | 0.0914 | -0.1699 [-0.4004, +0.0405] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V2_C1 | 0.1136 | -0.1477 [-0.3969, +0.1106] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V2_C2 | 0.1120 | -0.1493 [-0.3965, +0.1048] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V3_C0 | 0.1137 | -0.1476 [-0.3969, +0.1108] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V3_C1 | 0.1299 | -0.1314 [-0.3562, +0.1273] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V3_C2 | 0.1028 | -0.1585 [-0.3664, +0.0540] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V4_C0 | 0.1287 | -0.1326 [-0.3491, +0.1132] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V4_C1 | 0.1362 | -0.1252 [-0.3474, +0.1156] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V4_C2 | 0.1325 | -0.1288 [-0.3769, +0.1367] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |

## OPACITY_NORMALIZED · depth_absrel

| carrier | mean | vs primary reference | label | vs anchor |
|---|---:|---:|---|---|
| V2_C0 | 0.6148 | -0.1079 [-0.2255, +0.0077] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V2_C1 | 0.6101 | -0.1031 [-0.2078, -0.0012] | BELOW | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V2_C2 | 0.6097 | -0.1027 [-0.2079, -0.0001] | BELOW | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V3_C0 | 0.6103 | -0.1033 [-0.2081, -0.0013] | BELOW | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V3_C1 | 0.6169 | -0.1100 [-0.2483, +0.0289] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V3_C2 | 0.6402 | -0.1333 [-0.2912, +0.0197] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V4_C0 | 0.6170 | -0.1100 [-0.2486, +0.0267] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V4_C1 | 0.6037 | -0.0967 [-0.2265, +0.0302] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V4_C2 | 0.5922 | -0.0853 [-0.2199, +0.0491] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |

## OPACITY_NORMALIZED · depth_delta1

| carrier | mean | vs primary reference | label | vs anchor |
|---|---:|---:|---|---|
| V2_C0 | 0.1027 | -0.1586 [-0.3831, +0.0470] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V2_C1 | 0.1117 | -0.1496 [-0.3861, +0.0743] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V2_C2 | 0.1084 | -0.1529 [-0.3862, +0.0639] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V3_C0 | 0.1118 | -0.1495 [-0.3861, +0.0746] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V3_C1 | 0.1320 | -0.1293 [-0.2981, +0.0296] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V3_C2 | 0.1263 | -0.1350 [-0.2911, +0.0062] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V4_C0 | 0.1321 | -0.1292 [-0.2965, +0.0295] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V4_C1 | 0.1502 | -0.1111 [-0.3116, +0.0854] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V4_C2 | 0.1697 | -0.0916 [-0.3048, +0.1208] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |

## MEDIAN_SCALED · depth_absrel

| carrier | mean | vs primary reference | label | vs anchor |
|---|---:|---:|---|---|
| V2_C0 | 0.4801 | -0.1165 [-0.2069, -0.0250] | BELOW | BELOW |
| V2_C1 | 0.4536 | -0.0899 [-0.1530, -0.0039] | BELOW | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V2_C2 | 0.4549 | -0.0912 [-0.1540, -0.0051] | BELOW | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V3_C0 | 0.4536 | -0.0899 [-0.1530, -0.0039] | BELOW | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V3_C1 | 0.5059 | -0.1423 [-0.2184, -0.0436] | BELOW | BELOW |
| V3_C2 | 0.5227 | -0.1590 [-0.2435, -0.0551] | BELOW | BELOW |
| V4_C0 | 0.4960 | -0.1323 [-0.2076, -0.0315] | BELOW | BELOW |
| V4_C1 | 0.4641 | -0.1005 [-0.1595, -0.0208] | BELOW | BELOW |
| V4_C2 | 0.5217 | -0.1580 [-0.2347, -0.0691] | BELOW | BELOW |

## MEDIAN_SCALED · depth_delta1

| carrier | mean | vs primary reference | label | vs anchor |
|---|---:|---:|---|---|
| V2_C0 | 0.3836 | -0.1696 [-0.3184, -0.0269] | BELOW | BELOW |
| V2_C1 | 0.4253 | -0.1279 [-0.2284, +0.0008] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V2_C2 | 0.4237 | -0.1295 [-0.2315, -0.0010] | BELOW | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V3_C0 | 0.4252 | -0.1280 [-0.2285, +0.0007] | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V3_C1 | 0.3693 | -0.1840 [-0.3291, -0.0312] | BELOW | BELOW |
| V3_C2 | 0.3789 | -0.1743 [-0.3235, -0.0198] | BELOW | BELOW |
| V4_C0 | 0.3848 | -0.1684 [-0.3161, -0.0028] | BELOW | BELOW |
| V4_C1 | 0.4044 | -0.1488 [-0.2553, -0.0280] | BELOW | BELOW |
| V4_C2 | 0.3625 | -0.1907 [-0.3018, -0.0883] | BELOW | BELOW |

## 冻结主对比在不同 readout 下（仅描述）

| source | contrast | readout | metric | gain | 95% CI | label |
|---|---|---|---|---:|---:|---|
| V2 | SURFACE_GAIN | RAW | depth_absrel | +0.0195 | [-0.0248, +0.0743] | NOT_ESTABLISHED |
| V2 | SURFACE_GAIN | RAW | depth_delta1 | +0.0223 | [-0.0141, +0.0825] | NOT_ESTABLISHED |
| V2 | SURFACE_GAIN | OPACITY_NORMALIZED | depth_absrel | +0.0047 | [-0.0282, +0.0471] | NOT_ESTABLISHED |
| V2 | SURFACE_GAIN | OPACITY_NORMALIZED | depth_delta1 | +0.0090 | [-0.0069, +0.0314] | NOT_ESTABLISHED |
| V2 | SURFACE_GAIN | MEDIAN_SCALED | depth_absrel | +0.0265 | [-0.0112, +0.0881] | NOT_ESTABLISHED |
| V2 | SURFACE_GAIN | MEDIAN_SCALED | depth_delta1 | +0.0416 | [-0.0150, +0.1232] | NOT_ESTABLISHED |
| V3 | DENSITY_GAIN | RAW | depth_absrel | +0.0101 | [-0.0137, +0.0394] | NOT_ESTABLISHED |
| V3 | DENSITY_GAIN | RAW | depth_delta1 | +0.0161 | [-0.0156, +0.0574] | NOT_ESTABLISHED |
| V3 | DENSITY_GAIN | OPACITY_NORMALIZED | depth_absrel | -0.0067 | [-0.0893, +0.0685] | NOT_ESTABLISHED |
| V3 | DENSITY_GAIN | OPACITY_NORMALIZED | depth_delta1 | +0.0203 | [-0.0706, +0.1132] | NOT_ESTABLISHED |
| V3 | DENSITY_GAIN | MEDIAN_SCALED | depth_absrel | -0.0523 | [-0.0937, -0.0172] | NOT_ESTABLISHED |
| V3 | DENSITY_GAIN | MEDIAN_SCALED | depth_delta1 | -0.0559 | [-0.1128, -0.0155] | NOT_ESTABLISHED |
| V4 | SWEEP_GAIN | RAW | depth_absrel | +0.0072 | [-0.0041, +0.0169] | NOT_ESTABLISHED |
| V4 | SWEEP_GAIN | RAW | depth_delta1 | +0.0074 | [-0.0085, +0.0247] | NOT_ESTABLISHED |
| V4 | SWEEP_GAIN | OPACITY_NORMALIZED | depth_absrel | +0.0133 | [-0.0172, +0.0430] | NOT_ESTABLISHED |
| V4 | SWEEP_GAIN | OPACITY_NORMALIZED | depth_delta1 | +0.0181 | [-0.0280, +0.0744] | NOT_ESTABLISHED |
| V4 | SWEEP_GAIN | MEDIAN_SCALED | depth_absrel | +0.0319 | [-0.0019, +0.0699] | NOT_ESTABLISHED |
| V4 | SWEEP_GAIN | MEDIAN_SCALED | depth_delta1 | +0.0196 | [-0.0296, +0.0653] | NOT_ESTABLISHED |

## Opacity normalization 的作用（正数 = 归一化后更好）

| carrier | AbsRel effect | label | delta1 effect | label |
|---|---:|---|---:|---|
| V2_C0 | +0.0347 | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | +0.0113 | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V2_C1 | +0.0199 | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | -0.0020 | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V2_C2 | +0.0205 | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | -0.0036 | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V3_C0 | +0.0198 | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | -0.0019 | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V3_C1 | +0.0031 | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | +0.0022 | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V3_C2 | -0.0054 | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | +0.0235 | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V4_C0 | +0.0004 | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | +0.0034 | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V4_C1 | +0.0065 | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | +0.0141 | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |
| V4_C2 | +0.0261 | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE | +0.0372 | NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE |